We analyse developments in the global economy and its financial markets through the lens of business cycles. It is through this lens that we understand the current disruptions in technology, the shift in global economic power, and the remarkable turbulence in global markets for stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.
Howard has over 40 years of experience teaching economics and financial markets in universities and business schools around the world, including in the Netherlands, China, Vietnam and Sri Lanka; while developing the alternative economics for business that serves as the foundation for KE’s activities.
Bram has worked as an investment analyst for almost 10 years; studying- and trading in global equity, currency, commodity, and bond markets. He has furthermore done extensive research in the areas of the global economy and industrial development.
Josephine holds a MA degree in Development Studies from the International Institute of Social Studies and a BA degree in Philosophy and Economics. Apart from contributing to Kapital Economics, she currently works for the research and advocacy organisation Transnational Institute.
The cyclical nature of the global economy
Although most analysts attribute economic downturns to random shocks, the evidence available points to recurrent cycles in economic activity both on a global- and local scale. It is for this reason that recessions, and accompanying stock market corrections, can be predicted when examining the relevant data.
A prime example is the global economic downturn and stock market correction in 2020. Although the Covid-19-related lockdowns without a doubt triggered the event, a multitude of indicators were signalling a major weakening of the global economy already in 2019; among which were the contractions of industrial production in most major economies, the contraction of Chinese exports and imports, and the unusual distress in US money markets. A more detailed analysis can be found here.