Since the start of 2021, the question that appears to be on everyone’s mind is “Will this year be any better than the last?” When it comes to the economy, the IMF certainly seems to think so. In an update last month the fund reiterated the forecast it made in April of last year, assuring… Read More »The Real Recession Has Yet To Come
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What we do
Tracking and analysing developments in the global economy
We analyse developments in the global economy and its financial markets through the lens of business cycles. It is through this lens that we understand the current disruptions in technology, the shift in global economic power, and the remarkable turbulence in global markets for stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.
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The Rise of Big Tech Cements the Fall of the US Economy
While the US economy is going through its worst crisis in the last eight decades, with small businesses shutting down en masse and millions of Americans losing their jobs, one wouldn’t know anything is wrong solely from looking at the largest US companies. The crisis, triggered―but not caused―by the COVID-19 pandemic measures, has enabled some… Read More »The Rise of Big Tech Cements the Fall of the US Economy
Continue readingAre V-shaped PMIs Misleading?
The recent rise of PMIs may be overstating the extent of the global economic recovery. Economic conditions look to be the best in a while for the US and most European countries, at least according to recent readings of the popular Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). Ever since the global recession started to unravel in March,… Read More »Are V-shaped PMIs Misleading?
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