Since the start of 2021, the question that appears to be on everyone’s mind is “Will this year be any better than the last?” When it comes to the economy, the IMF certainly seems to think so. In an update last month the fund reiterated the forecast it made in April of last year, assuring… Read More »The Real Recession Has Yet To Come

While the US economy is going through its worst crisis in the last eight decades, with small businesses shutting down en masse and millions of Americans losing their jobs, one wouldn’t know anything is wrong solely from looking at the largest US companies. The crisis, triggered―but not caused―by the COVID-19 pandemic measures, has enabled some… Read More »The Rise of Big Tech Cements the Fall of the US Economy

The recent rise of PMIs may be overstating the extent of the global economic recovery. Economic conditions look to be the best in a while for the US and most European countries, at least according to recent readings of the popular Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). Ever since the global recession started to unravel in March,… Read More »Are V-shaped PMIs Misleading?

With returns on other assets at historical lows gold has become highly attractive to investors. After a stellar performance over the past few months gold has found its way back into the headlines, with market prices rising above $2000 an ounce for the first time in August. Having increased some 50% in value since the… Read More »A Sales Pitch for Buying Gold

Lecture given by Howard Nicholas in 2015 for the Critical Collevtive, in Amsterdam. Video below for reference. Original slides: 2015 Oct 14 SSA More recent version: 2017 Jan 17 UoA v3 Further readings: 2017 Reference list

Manufacturing lay at the heart of Singapore’s rapid development during the 60’s and 70’s as evidenced by historic economic data and records of government policies at the time. Although no one would question the success Singapore has had in raising the living standards of its population, and establishing itself as a regional centre for trade… Read More »Singapore and the Myth of Services-based Development

A severe recession has been a long time coming for the advanced countries. A global recession is all but certain after the US Bureau of Economic Research published data indicating that the world’s largest economy contracted by 4% in the first quarter of 2020. The announcement came weeks after China’s economy, the second largest, was… Read More »Underneath the Surface of the Coming Recession

Outlining the indications that a recession was building long before COVID-19 entered the scene. The available evidence suggests that, virus or no virus, a global recession was coming, and a big one at that. Well before the emergence of the novel coronavirus there were growing worries in the financial press and various policy circles that… Read More »How COVID-19 Did Not Cause the Recession

The fracking boom in the US has frequently been hailed as a remarkable economic achievement for drastically reducing the country’s dependence on foreign energy resources. In fact, it did more than just help the US achieve “energy independence”. By 2013, driven by a sharp rise in oil exports, the US overtook Saudi Arabia and Russia… Read More »How Fracking Helped Shape US Foreign Policy

The Fed is injecting an average of $60 billion worth of liquidity each day. Extraordinary monetary easing in Japan and Europe leading to the carry trade. The carry trade and repo operations in numbers. Naturally the question everyone is—or should be—asking is where this sudden demand for liquidity has come from. The answer is that… Read More »A Tidal Wave of Repos and the Best Carry Trade Ever