The long cycle

Underneath the Surface of the Coming Recession

A severe recession has been a long time coming for the advanced countries. A global recession is all but certain after the US Bureau of Economic Research published data indicating that the world’s largest economy contracted by 4% in the first quarter of 2020. The announcement came weeks after China’s economy, the second largest, was shown to have contracted for… Read More »Underneath the Surface of the Coming Recession

How COVID-19 Did Not Cause the Recession

Outlining the indications that a recession was building long before COVID-19 entered the scene. The available evidence suggests that, virus or no virus, a global recession was coming, and a big one at that. Well before the emergence of the novel coronavirus there were growing worries in the financial press and various policy circles that a global economic crisis was… Read More »How COVID-19 Did Not Cause the Recession

The long business cycle and what it means for the current economic downturn

Putting current events in the global economy into context of the long cycle and its development throughout history. The increasing likelihood of another sharp fall in the economic growth rate of the global economy, and quite possibly even a significant contraction in this growth rate, similar to or even worse than that of 2007-9, is once again causing economists to… Read More »The long business cycle and what it means for the current economic downturn