Since the start of 2021, the question that appears to be on everyone’s mind is “Will this year be any better than the last?” When...
The rise of Big Tech cements the fall of the US economy
While the US economy is going through its worst crisis in the last eight decades, its largest companies are having their best year ever
While the US economy is going through its worst crisis in the last eight decades, with small businesses shutting down...
Are V-shaped PMIs Misleading?
The recent rise of PMIs may be overstating the extent of the global economic recovery.
Economic conditions look to be the best in a while for the US and most European countries, at least according...
A sales pitch for buying gold
With returns on other assets at historical lows gold has become highly attractive to investors.
After a stellar performance over the past few months gold has found its way back into the headlines, with market...
Singapore and the myth of services-based development
Manufacturing lay at the heart of Singapore's rapid development during the 60's and 70's as evidenced by historic economic data and records of government policies at the time.
Although no one would question the success Singapore has had in raising the living standards of its population, and establishing...
Underneath the surface of the coming recession
A severe recession has been a long time coming for the advanced countries.
A global recession is all but certain after the US Bureau of Economic Research published data indicating that the world’s...
How COVID-19 did not cause the recession
Outlining the indications that a recession was building long before COVID-19 entered the scene.
The available evidence suggests that, virus or no virus, a global recession was coming, and a big one at that....
A sales pitch for buying gold
With returns on other assets at historical lows gold has become highly attractive to investors.
After a stellar performance over the past few months gold has found its way back into the headlines, with market...
Singapore and the myth of services-based development
Manufacturing lay at the heart of Singapore's rapid development during the 60's and 70's as evidenced by historic economic data and records of government policies at the time.
Although no one would question the success Singapore has had in raising the living standards of its population, and establishing...
Underneath the surface of the coming recession
A severe recession has been a long time coming for the advanced countries.
A global recession is all but certain after the US Bureau of Economic Research published data indicating that the world’s...
How COVID-19 did not cause the recession
Outlining the indications that a recession was building long before COVID-19 entered the scene.
The available evidence suggests that, virus or no virus, a global recession was coming, and a big one at that....
Business cycles, everywhere
We analyse developments in the global economy and its financial markets through the lens of business cycles. It is through this lens that we understand the current disruptions in technology, the shift in global economic power, and the remarkable turbulence in global markets for stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.
Although most analysts attribute economic downturns to random shocks, the evidence available points to recurrent cycles in economic activity both on a global- and local scale. It is for this reason that recessions, and accompanying stock market corrections, can be predicted when examining the relevant data.
A prime example is the global economic downturn and stock market correction in 2020. Although the Covid-19-related lockdowns without a doubt triggered the event, a multitude of indicators were signalling a major weakening of the global economy already in 2019; among which were the contraction of industrial production in most major economies, the contractions of Chinese exports and imports, and the unusual distress in US money markets. A more detailed analysis can be found here.
While the 7-11 year cycle, also known as the Juglar cycle, is the best-documented business cycle, there is another cycle that should be receiving more attention at this very moment in time as it helps explain several of the major developments we see today. For instance, it helps explain why recessions over the past few decades have become worse and more frequent; it explains why there is a power struggle between the US and China; and why we’re likely to seen more major technological developments in the coming years.