Josephine Valeske

The Rise of Big Tech Cements the Fall of the US Economy

While the US economy is going through its worst crisis in the last eight decades, with small businesses shutting down en masse and millions of Americans losing their jobs, one wouldn’t know anything is wrong solely from looking at the largest US companies. The crisis, triggered―but not caused―by the COVID-19 pandemic measures, has enabled some of the world’s largest corporations… Read More »The Rise of Big Tech Cements the Fall of the US Economy

A Tidal Wave of Repos and the Best Carry Trade Ever

The Fed is injecting an average of $60 billion worth of liquidity each day. Extraordinary monetary easing in Japan and Europe leading to the carry trade. The carry trade and repo operations in numbers. Naturally the question everyone is—or should be—asking is where this sudden demand for liquidity has come from. The answer is that it is the result of… Read More »A Tidal Wave of Repos and the Best Carry Trade Ever

Germany: The industrial machine

Germany’s trade surplus is among the highest in the world. Why the German trade balance has everything to do with its highly competitive industry. The long-term rise of Germany’s currency as a reflection of its competitiveness. Since President Donald Trump started putting up tariffs against China in January of 2018, the trade war has dominated discussions on the health of… Read More »Germany: The industrial machine

The long business cycle and what it means for the current economic downturn

Putting current events in the global economy into context of the long cycle and its development throughout history. The increasing likelihood of another sharp fall in the economic growth rate of the global economy, and quite possibly even a significant contraction in this growth rate, similar to or even worse than that of 2007-9, is once again causing economists to… Read More »The long business cycle and what it means for the current economic downturn

An empire in decline

The deindustrialisation of the US economy. The importance of fracking and maintaining high oil prices at all costs. The resemblence of the situation in the US to the fall of the British empire and what it means for the Dollar. As the current global long cycle moves closer to its trough, China appears to be taking over the lead role in the… Read More »An empire in decline